It is a fact that Central Asian countries, particularly energy-rich Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, depend heavily on Turkey to export their energy into the international market. Turkey’s initiatives in Central Asia are raising many apprehensions about whether Ankara is trying to expand its strategic influence in this region, taking advantage of its vulnerability. Similarly, President Erdogan also visited Kazakhstan in October 2022. Some of the major initiatives in Central Asia in recent years include the “Uzbekistan Military Agreement” in November 2022, the conclusion of the summit of the Organisation of Turkic States (OTS) at Samarkand in November 2022 and the Turkmenistan-Azerbaijan Summit in December 2022. In this context, one may highlight here that in the historical past, Central Asia was a space for competition among three major powers – the Persian empire, Turkish (Ottoman) power and Tsarist Russia- which shaped the destiny of this geopolitical space, also known as Turkestan. It can be argued that throughout history, Turkey tried to expand its geopolitical spheres of influence in this heartland by employing coercive means. Though some of these agreements which the Central Asian countries have signed with Turkey, in the longer run, will have a boomerang effect on the Central Asian geopolitical space. This can be witnessed from several agreements Turkey has signed with Central Asian countries to revive the imaginary geopolitical idea of the “Turkic world”. However, one interesting development which is taking place in this part of the world, largely unnoticed in the recent past, is the growing influence of Turkey in Central Asia. Hence, one witnesses some form of the geopolitical vacuum also taking place in Central Asia largely due to recent geopolitical trajectories, as discussed above. Secondly, the political development in Afghanistan is also going to have immense geopolitical consequences for Central Asia. At the same time, the United States is also not taking much interest in Central Asia after its withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021. Kazakhstan is also taking an independent position in the current Russia-Ukraine War.

The apprehension is more visible in Kazakhstan, as it has a long border with Russia. The Central Asian countries also fear that Russia might carry out similar actions against them as happened to Ukraine as part of its “Greater Eurasia” dream.

This has happened because Russia’s War with Ukraine and the subsequent West’s sanctions on Russia hinder the Central Asian countries from engaging more with Moscow. In this regard, the first and foremost was the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war, which largely altered the geopolitical space of post-Soviet Eurasia. This is happening primarily because of the broader geopolitical developments which are taking place in this region. The Central Asian geopolitical space has been undergoing a tectonic change in recent years.

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